Poll shows Tester up by seven and much work ahead

August 23, 2006 in Jon Tester

So the latest Tester team poll is up – and it’s good news. Tester at 44 percent, Burns 37 percent. Matt Singer:

First, don’t distrust internal polls, simply be suspicious of internal polls that find their way into the public’s eye. Only favorable data gets leaked typically. Second, the sample size on this poll is quite large – 1200 voters – which should minimize the chances of the numbers being way off. Third, they don’t appear to have pushed leaners, which might explain the high undecided rate — nearly 20%.

To be fair to Tester’s team, they released the results of their last poll, which was a full six points lower than a Rasmussen poll released around the same time. I think the true indication of the race is that we haven’t seen the results of a single Burns-sponsored poll. Their silence about the numbers is telling.

Of course the polls don’t mean anything right now except that this race is too close to relax. Take heart in the numbers — things are looking good — but don’t grow overconfident. Anything can happen.

Tester has gained statewide prominence and recognition thanks in large part to the incredible and energetic work of his staff and the myriad of Tester-backers who have kept the issues alive, kept his name visible, and basically done all of the work. Keep at it.

We’ve got – what? – twelve weeks to go?