Cautious Optimism for a Deal with Iran
I’m beginning to wonder if some of Obama’s failures aren’t actually strategic maneuvers against the lingering push of the Neocons.
Syria, for example.
Obama’s failure to sell a direct military intervention against Syria really pissed off Israel and Saudi Arabia. I described their national tantrums in a post titled The New American Century is Getting Old.
And now there is this tentative deal with Iran.
Built into this process is another failure that may be strategic. To avoid an AIPAC beating, there will be a push in Congress to pass legislation for more sanctions, which will kill any possibility of a deal. If Obama doesn’t want this deal to get done, allowing the lobby to use the Congressional service they have paid for could be a win win.
But AIPAC isn’t all powerful, and there are good reasons why the Obama administration may be serious about a deal with Iran.
Since his election last year, Obama has advocated for a foreign policy pivot to Asia. That can’t happen if Iran continues to be the last feverish target for the old New American Century.
The new target is China, and as the sleeping giant yawns and farts itself into waking, it appears there’s a US faction that may have the influence to discard the primacy of Israel in order to realign with the changing geopolitical terrain.
This is dangerous territory for the Obama administration. I also think it’s dangerous for Americans, considering Israel is run by psychopaths who exploit the historical trauma of the holocaust and misrepresent the existential threat coming from Iran.
Though I don’t think it’s for noble reasons, the diplomatic efforts of the Obama administration should be commended.