CNN Moves Montana to Toss-Up

by jhwygirl

Titled “Even Reliably Red Montana in Play as Election Day Looms,” CNN has moved Montana to toss-up status in its Poll of Poll, giving McCain a slim 1 point lead, 46-45.

Even the most recent poll, conducted by American Research Group October 28-30th, has McCain with a nail-biting 4 point lead in a poll that has a margin of error of 5. In that poll – McCain 49, Obama 45.

MSNBC’s Chuck Todd moved Montana, too, to toss-up status on this morning’s Meet the Press. He has even more dire predictions in this column.

Ultimately, in just about any polling map you look at, all leads – whether Obama or McCain – are within the margin of error.

This election is going to come down to whoever has the best ground game/get out the vote.

No rest until Tuesday night, people. Walk, call. Get ‘er done, people – Get ‘Er Done.

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  1. klemz

    If you want Obama to take Montana, you should have the “ground game” out for Ron Paul. People forget that without Perot Clinton was a lost cause in ’92.

  2. Duncan Idaho

    Hey guys, I posted more-or-less this same comment at Left in the West, but if I can inspire one or two other unlikely volunteers like myself, it’s worth re-posting.

    I haven’t canvassed for quite a few years, and I can tell you that compared to my previous experience the Obama campaign has taken organization to a new evolutionary level. As a result my canvassing experiences have been unexpectedly pleasant and rewarding–my role has mainly been to provide useful information to likely Obama voters on where their polling place is and where/how they can still cast an early/absentee ballot (the Missoula County Courthouse is only open from 7-12 Monday, but absentee ballots can be turned in at the Courthouse or at voters’ regular polling place on Tuesday).

    If anyone reading this is feeling marginal about canvassing because you hate going door-to-door, please take it from me–it hasn’t been bad at all! Your address list is screened so it includes almost exclusively voters who are likely to vote Obama or are undecided. Most people aren’t home so you just leave doorhangers there; about half the people who are home are enthusiastic Obama supporters who are glad to see you; and for both the Obama supporters and the undecideds you’re providing useful information about the location of their polling place so you leave them with a positive experience. You only talk to most people for about a minute or less. I got a quick brushoff from a couple McCain supporters and had a few entertaining conversations with likely Ron Paul voters. (I agree with klemz above that Ron Paul is an important factor in Obama’s campaign–for people who want to vote for an intelligent and principled candidate there are two choices in this race and McCain is number 3 or 4 [don’t forget Bob Barr :-)]). I finished the day feeling like Obama’s chances in this precinct are better than I’d expected.

    I wandered around East Missoula in the rain for a few hours today and knocked on about 100 doors, and I honestly think I increased the chances that at least 5 to 8 of those people will vote for Obama. You can hit 100 doors of your own tomorrow during one 3-4 hour shift! I’ll be out there again!

  3. Duncan – thanks for that report. I must admit, I slacked today – and I’ve been walking for my local rep. I’m scheduled to poll watch on Tuesday….but you are right. Walking, knocking, and yes – even calling – can be quite rewarding.

    It’s good to hear a report from out there in the field – and its good to know how it’s going.

    For Obama to win Montana, it’s going to come down to the GOTV. Every single vote is going to matter, as Montana is going to be a squeaker….

    Thanks!

  4. It is no surprise that the John McCain – Sarah Palin ticket has gone increasingly negative down the home stretch. They really don’t have any other options to close the gap. However, a new negative advertisement has been leaked that is particularly disturbing in its hypocrisy.

    http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Leaked_Ad_for_McCain_Palin_Abstinence_Only_for_America

    Sarah Palin has consistently advocated abstinence-only education in schools, despite the fact that this philosophy has resulted with both Palin and her daughter conceiving out of wedlock. Clearly, abstinence-only has not worked for the Palin family, yet Sarah Palin wants to prescribe this in place of comprehensive sexual education for other young Americans.

    This advertisement came from the same 527 group that put forth this anti-Obama spot last week…

    http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Leaked_Pro_McCain_527_Negative_Ad_Small_Town_Fear_Itself/




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