Hide your wife, and hide your kids… Denny Rehberg seems to want Tester’s seat (duh)

By Duganz

Roll Call broke the news last night:

“It’s happening Saturday,” said a knowledgeable Montana GOP political operative. “He’s running. There is a lot of support and enthusiasm back home, and Denny knows he can win.”

…The operative offered some internal Rehberg polling numbers showing the Montana Republican in a statistical tie with Tester in a prospective 2012 matchup.

The Opinion Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent backing Rehberg compared with 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent undecided. In a three-way matchup featuring Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer running as an independent, Rehberg led 44 percent to Tester’s 28 percent and Schweitzer’s 18 percent. Eleven percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted Jan. 5, has a margin of error of 4.65 percent.

Rehberg will make the announcement at Saturday’s Lincoln/Reagan dinner in Helena. Tea party darling Rep. Michele Bachman (R-Minn.) is also expected to attend.

So I read these bits, and once I stopped vomiting (Rehberg, groan; Bachman, double-goran), I read this tidbit from KXLH, the Helena-based CBS affiliate:

Brian Barrett, communications director of Rehberg for Congress, released the following statement on Tuesday morning: “Denny has received a lot of support and encouragement to run for the United States Senate in 2012. He is weighing all of his options carefully and will announce his decision Saturday.”

Roll Call also noted that Steve Daines would be moving to the House race, leaving the Republican Millionaire ticket wide open.

This isn’t shocking to anyone who reads or posts on this blog, or any Montanan for that matter. We’ve known for a while that Rehberg was gearing up to run for the Senate (after years of doing nothing in the House, he obviously wants SIX years to do nothing in the Senate).

I’m worried for Tester. It’s going to be an ugly race, and he’s a decent human being. How can a decent human being stand a chance against a man who prides himself on hanging out with filth and scum? A man who writes more earmarks before breakfast than you can shake a stick at, and still has the audacity to claim he’s earmark free? I know I’ve had some recent issues with Tester (The DREAM Act was a good thing, and you should have voted yes!), but with Rehberg? Oh boy…what an asshole shitbag.

Let the debate begin…

  1. JC

    Too bad Tester jettisoned his “extremist” supporters by throwing them under the bus. They’d most likely have helped push him over the top–just like they did in ’06.

    Unfortunately, Tester stepped on the third rail of Montana politics with his FJRA bill, and hard release language (destroying some wilderness in order to officially designate rocks and ice, i.e. lands with unmerchantable timber). There’s a large constituency in this state that thinks that is reason enough to not support a politician–no matter who his replacement may be.

    Case in point: John Melcher losing to Conrad Burns. One major reason he lost? Enviros turned against him for his anti-environment positions, just like Tester’s FJRA bill is bad policy.

    On the other hand, we have an opportunity to replace Rehberg with a true progressive. Let’s see who declares to run for the seat. Time for a good progressive indy to come out of the woodwork and shake up Montana politics!

    • i hear you loud and clear jc. but this is rehberg against jon! el diablo himself would be a better choice than rehberg.

      i have a lot of differences with jon but i am willing to set those aside to win this race. it is just too important for montana’s future to not allow rehberg to sit in the senate for 6 years.

      of course, that being said,i along with many in this state who recognize the forest bill as rotten policy, will continue to fight tooth and nail against this re-warmed conrad burns leftover that jon continues to try to serve us.

      subsidizing a shrinking timber industry that is struggling to find anyone to buy its products as it is, in exchange for a paltry amount of wilderness just seems too expensive, fiscally insane and illogical to even comprehend.

      • Craig Moore

        Pbear, China is the NEW market for wood: http://www.opinion250.com/blog/view/18215/3/building+with+wood+in+china?id=140&st=181

        They are building multistory buildings with wood frames. Tester knows this.

        • sorry craig. you and tester are dreaming. canada and russia have that market all sewed up.

          remember, i grew up in oregon the grandson of a right of way logger. these little trees around here don’t look like timber to me. one truck carrying forty trees vs three trucks carrying one tree is my history.

          if there is any market left over from russia and canada that is cost effective, (and i don’t think there will be) i am pretty sure washington and oregon can handle it without montana’s pathetic toothpicks.

          • Matthew Koehler

            RE: Craig’s post about China and lumber.

            P-Bear already provided you with a great explanation. I’d also like to point out that, in addition to timber-rich Canada and Russia, New Zealand is a major lumber exporter to China. Most all of that NZ lumber comes from quick growing plantations, as our organization (then called Native Forest Network) worked throughout the 90s with NZ activists to successfully end native forest/old-growth logging on NZ’s public lands.

            The notion I’m getting from Craig is that we should support Tester’s mandated logging/motors in Wilderness bill so that loggers can cut down pecker poles on the Beaverhead Deerlodge National Forest and then truck and ship those pecker poles across the ocean to China, so that country’s billion + people can over-develop, just like we did.

            Yeah, I’m not sure that’s a great idea on any level. I’m certainly not willing to sacrifice America’s public national forest legacy so China can over-develop. There’s also a little matter of a current US ban on the export of raw logs from federal public lands.

      • Has Jon Tester voted to continue child sexual slavery? Burns did …

        Just asking …

  2. Would it be okay we looked at this as an opportunity for Brian Schweitzer to run for the seat Rehberg would have to defend? Tester can hold his own if we can show how red states fail.

  3. Kptrng

    I won’t say we’ll be better served by Rehberg, but at least he forms his own opposition so that we can stop him in his tracks, as we so often did Burns. Tester undermines his base via triangulation, and so is in my view far more dangerous than Rehberg. Neither have proven terribly effective, however.

    It’s interesting to watch – Tester took a couple of years, but learned that he could never go wrong offending progressives, as you guys don’t have the jingles to punish him for misbehaving. Once he absorbed that lesson, he was off and running. (He’s not grounded in any ideology, and sees that there is no reward for doing the right thing, no punishment for doing the wrong thing. What would you do in his shoes?) I would bet his campaign coffers will be full by next year.

    I really doubt that being a senator fits Schweitzer’s temperament – he’s a free swinger used to getting his way. I suspect he’d go nuts in his one term in the Senate.

    • petetalbot

      Kptrng says: “Tester … is in my view far more dangerous than Rehberg.”

      Surely you jest. Most progressives I know have been disappointed by some of Jon’s votes BUT Denny is anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-environment, anti-peace, anti-union, anti-health care, anti-truth … he’s the anti-Christ.

      You talk of triangulation but this isn’t about the lesser of two evils. This is about someone who is truly evil: a nasty, full-blown member of the tea party radical right.

      At least Conrad Burns was affable.

      • Too far Pete. Burns was as affable as a beehive: lots of honey, but also pure poison.

        • petetalbot

          Quick anecdote: Many years ago, I won dinner with Conrad at an MCAT auction. A friendlier guy, at least as dinner company, you’d be hard pressed to find. Dined and wined me and some staff — and I mean a lot of wine — up at the old Mansion Restaurant. I took my stepdaughter, a Hellgate sophomore at the time. She held her own against Conrad in just about every political conversation we had.

          I don’t want to be too hard on Conrad at this time since his health is waning. So, I’ll stick with affable. His record speaks for itself.

          I imagine that dinner with Denny would make for a miserable evening.

          • My Conrad view is jaded from an insult he flung my way for audience points once, so there’s that.

            But I completely agree that dinner with Denny would be awful except for one thing: Lots of booze.

          • JC

            “I imagine that dinner with Denny would make for a miserable evening.”

            You don’t have to imagine. Just don’t get in a boat or a car with him afterwards.

  4. Would be exciting to get a real dynamic lefty in Rehberg’s seat.
    Might get me interested in electoral politics again. Might. But for now I’ll keep concentrating on media and how to get the message out.

    • According to Ellie Hill, Franke Wilmer is running for the House against Daines. Dynamic enough for you? ~wink~ (Yes, I’m a little jazzed by the news.)

      • Matthew Koehler

        Dave Strohmaier of the Missoula City Council is also considering a run for the US House seat.

      • Pogue Mahone

        Who? I’ve never heard of either person. What do they have to offer? And is not statewide recognition a factor at all? And really, can they stay on a horse?

        • Who? It would be nice if, in the face of multiple choices, you would better reference your pronouns.

          You would serve yourself well to find out who Franke Wilmer is. Yes, statewide recognition is a factor, just as it was for Jon Tester originally. But, other than as that guy who ran with that other guy who lost, Daines doesn’t have a whole lot of state recognition either. What Daines will have is a shit-ton of corporate cash and a headful of crazy.

          • Pogue Mahone

            Either person? Is that not plural enough for you? Is that not nice? BTW, Tester had name recognition. He served some time in the state senate if I remember correctly. Now, one more time. What do YOU have to recommend your choice? Nothing? Then why recommend? If your man/woman is going to run, what have they done up to now?

            • Pogue, I’m going to write this slowly in the hope that you might understand.

              I referenced 3 names: Ellie Hill, Franke Wilmer and Steve Daines. In reply to me, Matthew Koehler brought up Dave Strohmaier. You simply asked “who”, and then confused yourself further by stating pompously that you’d never heard of either (meaning 2) of those people, with 4 names in question. Assuming that you’re not an owl, your “who” referenced somebody. Do you care to clarify of whom you were writing?

              And don’t be so stupid as to ask someone to give you information you need when it’s readily available. If you’re not smart enough to inform yourself, then my preference would be that you not vote at all. I have my reasons for recommendation. I don’t owe them to you, puppy. Grow up, and then we’ll talk.

        • Pogue Mahone

          Sorry, but since you recommended someone, I was hoping for a little more than the standard website offering of her website. You know, like maybe a personal insight or something. Guess I was wrong. So, after reading her entire site, I’d have to say that she’s a nice, intelligent, hardworking, good, courageous, decent person with absolutely NO name recognition. Now, is that enough? Well, I’m not sure. THAT is where some personal insight might have been helpful. And pompous? No. Just very curious. I usually recommend my candidates after I get to know them a bit by watching them in action and actually talking to them. This coming election is too important to run candidates that have no chance. Name recognition, electability, and charisma will all play a part. Is she the one? I suspect not at this point. Would she be good? Definitely. And please excuse my grammar, syntax and rather sluggish though process. It’s the best I can do with the brain cells I have left.

  5. jon has my vote in this contest but he had better start separating himself from max baucus if he wants to survive.

    one way to do it would be to renounce baucuscare and support a citizens initiative in montana during the 2012 election providing workers and small business, farmers, self-employed and sole proprietors with public option health insurance. rising premiums for health insurance is pricing everyone out of decent affordable health care in this country thanks to baucuscare.

    • Pogue Mahone

      Well, he can’t be opposed to the wars anymore. He’s worn that one out. And really, it just might be very hard for Jon to present himself as anything other than a slightly to the right Denny. Is that enough? I doubt it. He’ll drink the tea to win, you just watch.

    • Craig Moore

      Pbear, given Tester’s vote locking in Native Americans into substandard health care, don’t expect any renouncement anytime soon: http://ontheissues.org/Social/Jon_Tester_Health_Care.htm

      Voted NO on allowing tribal Indians to opt out of federal healthcare.


      1. TRIBAL MEMBER CHOICE PROGRAM: Members of federally-recognized Indian Tribes shall be provided the opportunity to voluntarily enroll, with a risk-adjusted subsidy for the purchase of qualified health insurance in order to–improve Indian access to high quality health care services;
      2. provide incentives to Indian patients to seek preventive health care services;
      3. create opportunities for Indians to participate in the health care decision process;
      4. encourage effective use of health care services by Indians; and
      5. allow Indians to make health care coverage & delivery decisions & choices.

  6. to quote my grandmother, “oh for shits sakes.”

  7. mr benson

    Nobody beats Steve Daines for Rehberg’s seat. Franke Wilmer won’t get it done. The Tea Party and the Republicans are united in their excitement about Steve, and he has a lot of momentum, fundraising and name recognition already.

    Tester’s very vulnerable due to his Obamacare vote, and you guys and all your “he’s not progressive enough” bullshit aren’t helping. You need to rally around Jon.

    Because Denny will come hard for the seat and he’s gonna have huge money; Montana is a cheap senate seat to buy. I give 3-1 odds on Rehberg right now.

    So go ahead and whimper about Jon, a very good Montanan, not being Karl Marx, and watch the Rs sweep the three big seats.

    • if jon supported a citizens initiative to allow public option insurance in montana, he could circle rehberg’s little drunken one horse wagon with ease.

      and if wilmer did the same against the rich guy she could win hands down.

      money ain’t everything craig. guts beats money every time.

      • Craig Moore

        Pbear, I’m not Mr. B.

        Have another one. Btw, guts are what’s left on the floor after the fight.

        • gotta admit it would make things interesting… all those people out there in tv land watching a republican stammer while he tries to defend private health insurers…. meanwhile they are licking (spitting is more the word) stamps to put on envelopes containing ever increasing health insurance premiums…..

          could tighten up the race and make you sweat those odds of yours.

          • Craig Moore

            After watching Tester get mean and nasty with the environmental folks like Matt over their opposition to his forest logging bill, it would be more amusing to watch him attack others over what he did to deny Native Americans quality health care choice. See above.

            • cutting kindling over there craig?

              cause i think that wedge of yours is gonna get stuck in that wet piece of tamarack this time.

              • Craig Moore

                Pbear, both Rehberg and Tester will have their pants yanked down in this contest. The race will be over he can pull theirs up first.

                BTW, the organic farming community will be out of sorts when they discover how Tester screwed them over with S.510 allowing Monsanto to profit at their expense. But that’s a topic for another day.

              • it’s gonna be a pretty interesting race if tester does some stuff right. but if he follows baucus’s lead, it won’t.

              • Craig Moore

                Pbear, today Tester voted to continue Obamacare just like he voted to entrap Native Americans in their govt mandated healthcare system

                This will be a major issue in his battle to retain the Senate seat.

              • JC

                NIce to know you have what you think is the best interests of
                Native Americans at the forefront, Craig.

                What’s your plan for improving health care on and off the reservations for tribal members and the dispossessed?

                Or does that come after you dismantle the ACA (i.e. never)?

      • mr benson

        I didn’t know Steve was rich, and, I know him well. He’s got support, donations, etc, but it’s not his money.

        We already had that election, pb, and communism in health care got it’s ass kicked. Montana went bright red.

        Which is unfortunate because we are seeing the excesses on one party rule in the legislature just as surely as we saw it in the last congress.

    • Matt

      “Tester’s very vulnerable due to his Obamacare vote, and you guys and all your “he’s not progressive enough” bullshit aren’t helping. You need to rally around Jon. ”

      Right on. But, maybe what our nation needs is the putrid stink of some hard core tea party action in our state and federal govt. for a couple of years to remember this little lesson. Progressives need to remember that just as our nation is not pegged far right, it is not pegged far left either.

    • You may be correct, but you’re not right.

      • mr benson

        dunno which “you” you are talking to, duganz. And the rest of this comment isn’t directed at you, my friend in the skepticism business.

        Jon’s gonna need 100% of the left, and 75% of the middle to win the election. Denny’s wouldn’t be ditching his sure thing and taking on this race if he wasn’t very, very confident.

        Left should be coming out with “let’s go kick some Rehberg butt” and not, “what ideologically pure version of Dennis McDonald can we run this time?”.

        • I was referring to you, Mr B. Just a small joke on how you may be proven correct, but I still think you’re wrong (in the ideology sense).

          • mr benson

            Hah hah. Right’s right.

            and ideology, like theology, is the problem, not the solution.

          • mr benson

            I’m not “blinded by the light” of the evangelical ideologist.

            • But, would you admit that you’re lit up like a deuce, another runner in the night?

              I digress.

              You’re correct that any static set of mores is bound to lead to brainmelt, but I think we all suffer from some form or another. You and I (and others) all suffer from thinking we’ve got the right idea.

    • JC

      “he’s not progressive enough” bullshit

      It’s not about his lack of progressiveness, Mr. B. It’s about him becoming corrupt, which has been happening over the last two years, which I have chronicled in a variety of ways, not the least of which were his votes on FinReg (which were intermingled with fundraisers and meetings with Wall Streeters).

      First rule of thumb for a moderate politician who needs his leftward base to get elected: first do no harm. Second: feed your base. Third: don’t engage in doublespeak.

      Tester violated all three. And none of that has anything to do with his progressiveness, or lack thereof. It has to do with integrity, which Tester has shown to have less and less of.

    • JC

      Nobody beats Steve Daines for Rehberg’s seat.

      Do you realize how hilarious of a statement that is? The election is 21 months away, and you’re already throwing a victory party.

      Theres a long list of over-confident politicians and their supporters that have had their wet dreams squelched.

  8. Ingemar Johansson

    If Tester is your superman, then Obamacare is kryptonite.

    That, and just being plain stupid.

  9. petetalbot

    Some thoughts on the above comments:

    First, Mr. B talks about “communism in health care …” Current health care reform is about as communist as current banking reform.

    Second, I know nothing of Frank Wilmer and I consider myself relatively well-informed. I know Dave Strohmaier because he’s my ward representative on City Council. Neither are well known entities statewide and while name recognition isn’t everything, well …

    Third, Matt (not exactly sure which Matt this is) says: ” … maybe what our nation needs is the putrid stink of some hard core tea party action in our state and federal govt. for a couple of years … ” I tend to agree and I’m afraid it may take longer than Fall of ’12 for the Republican debacle to come home to roost.

    That being said, I’ll work my ass off for any D running against Rehberg and/or Daines.

    • Pogo Possum

      Pete, I have met Franke Wilmer. She is sharp, has a sense of humor, seemed knowledgeable, likeable, pleasant to talk to, and came across as VERY VERY liberal even in casual conversation.

      You and many of the contributors on 4&20 will love her. However, unless she can do a miraculous job of messaging and image control, she is going to have a very difficult time winning over the conservative Democrats and moderate to conservative Independents that traditionally vote for Rehberg and will look upon Daines favorably.

      Baucus, Tester and Schweitzer all ran and defeated Republicans by supporting (or at least pretending to)conservative issues(defending gun rights, energy development, fiscal responsibility, etc). Any openly liberal Democrat is going to be facing an uphill battle in a Senate, House or Governors race in Montana especially considering the current economic and political climate.

      I have seen some of the polling that Denny is using to decide his entry into this race. Tester is vulnerable and the mood of the electorate is favoring Republicans right now. Voters, including the conservative Democrats and conservative Independents, are not buying the “Denny is a drunk” mantra or the “Denny is a miserable person” sermon the left keeps throwing out. Mr. Benson’s comments are spot on.

      Both you and I have been around the political block enough times to know that two years is a lifetime in politics so a lot can change between now and the 2012 election. We will have to see if that change assists Denny or Jon. Rehberg is betting it gets better for him and more difficult for Tester.

      • Small correction, Pogo. Denny is betting that things get worse for America and thereby worse for Tester. In fact, Denny’s hoping for it, just like all the corrupt Republicans who pander to Tea Party anger.

        • Pogo Possum

          Looks like you have a few anger issues yourself Rob. Let’s see how that rhetoric works for you in 2012.

          • The Polish Wolf

            Kailey has a point – if the economy in two years is notably better, I think Tester will be just fine. I can’t speak for all Republicans, but Coobs is on record hoping for the economy to get worse, and Boehner sees winning elections as more important than job creation. So I think it’s fair to say that maybe Republicans are not 100% in favor of a better economy in the next two years.

            • mr benson

              It’s looking less likely all the time that “the economy will be better”. And how many months do I have to wait before I can call the election for Daines?

  10. Let the civil war among the Dems begin –

    Who knows – maybe some of the Dems who voted for Denny last November will change their vote, and go for Jon Tester –

  11. When’s the last time denny had a real opponent?

    • Define “real”? I’ve personally met or at least seen in person every single one of Denny’s opponents for the House (save Steve Kelly, ironically enough) and I can assure you that they were all very real. It would be appreciated if you clarify the distinction you assume you’re making.

  12. Craig Moore

    Pbear, since you asked, Define “real.” Names will do.

  13. competitive alright? jeez you guys are like a bunch of old ladies today.

    i can’t remember the last competitive opponent that denny has faced. certainly not in the last three elections that’s for sure.

    • Craig Moore

      Pbear, you are like a grumpy old bear that woke up trying to pass last fall’s meal.

      Again, using your words, who are these competitive candidates that would appeal to conservative D’s and Independents that vote?

    • Competitive is defined after the fact, problembear, at least to you. So let this “old lady” ask other questions. Using your great insight, foresight and eyesight, how and who do you say will be “competitive” knowing that the rest of us foolish plebes will only know after the fact?

      • JC

        Geez, maybe Pat Williams wants his old seat back. It’d be his for the asking (I say that with a nod to Mr. B who I just got done lambasting for predicting a race 21 months out). Though the chances of that are nil, though. Maybe Carol would want to run. That would be a competitive race.

        Another competitive race? Schweitzer. Again, doubt he’d be interested in following in Denny’s steps to the house, though. He’s going to hold out for a VP pick someday, or a cabinet post. More freedom to be Brian.

        There’s a lot of experienced Dems could make a competitive race: Bill Yellowtail, John Morrison, Mike Cooney, local fav Chris Kaufmann, Nancy Keenan (who has given Rehberg the most competitive race for the House in 2000), Jesse Laslovich… the list goes on.

        Of course, who knows what any of these people are going to do. Personally, I’d like to see some new comers on the statewide scene bring some new blood into the election. But anybody who thinks Daines is a shoo-in is just do’in a buncha hoo-haw.

        • Pogo Possum

          I agree PBear that Daines (or any candidate in an open seat at this level) is not a shoo-in. He is though very competitive, has strong support from all the key factions of his own party, can raise a ton of money and has been polling well among independents.

          Most of the people on your list have support issues within their own party and among independents. I suspect we will see stronger names emerge on the Democratic side once Rehbergh announces.

      • asked and answered myself. see below.

  14. looks to me like denny hasn’t had a real opponent since nancy keenan. very close race…..

    Montana’s At-large congressional district: Results 2000–2008[13]
    Year Republican Votes Pct Democrat Votes Pct Libertarian Votes Pct
    2000 Denny Rehberg 211,418 51.5% Nancy Keenan 180,971 44.1% James J. Tikalsky 9,132 2.2%
    2002 Denny Rehberg (inc.) 214,100 64.6% Steve Kelly 108,233 32.7% Mike Fellows 8,988 2.7%
    2004 Denny Rehberg (inc.) 286,076 64.4% Tracy Velazquez 145,606 32.8% Mike Fellows 12,458 2.8%
    2006 Denny Rehberg (inc.) 239,124 58.9% Monica J. Lindeen 158,916 39.1% Mike Fellows 8,085 2%
    2008 Denny Rehberg (inc.) 307,132 64.2% John Driscoll 154,713 32.4% Mike Fellows 16,282 3.4%

    and then of course, there was the shellacking of that bozo dennis mcdonald this past fall…..

    with the exception of nancy keenan all of rehberg’s opponents for his seat have been tomato cans. he’s stepping into the ring with the defending champion of one of our senate seats now.

    i think rehberg is in for quite a surprise tangling with jon tester.

    • Nancy Keenan. What a woman. Hard-nosed liberal, with a school teacher’s compassion streak. Broke my heart when she lost to Rehberg (and Bush won, and Martz won…). Thank god for us she’s working hard with NARAL, protecting rights of women everywhere.

    • Matthew Koehler

      I’m certainly no fan of Reberg’s politics, but another way to look at past election numbers if to consider the fact that Tester won the senate seat in 2006 with 199,845 total votes.

      • mr benson

        If only those Republicans in Gallatin county that voted for Rehberg had voted for Burns, Tester would not have won the election. But many Rehberg voters didn’t vote for Burns, and Burns lost by only a few votes.

        Matthew makes a very accurate observation. A followup question to his observation: Has Tester increased or decreased his popularity since running vs Burns?

  15. Scoop Montana

    Tester screwed up his chance for a second term by not keeping his original promise to be an independent voice in DC. I think he said “special interests won’t take a ride in this truck”. Instead, he gave them the wheel. He voted the party line and against what most Montanan’s wanted. The best I can tell he is the second hand of Max. A shame. They both need to come home.

  16. Steve meyers

    Boy, these montana people are really rip roarin folk

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